[Lnc-business] Oklahoma petition - Re: Fwd: Re: [Lnc-votes] February LNC Meeting

[Alicia Mattson]

Since the 68% validity is an estimate, I'm assuming it's an optimistic
estimate.  The finances for this drive have all turned out to be very
optimistic estimates.  On the previous EC call, I expressed my hunch that
more money would be required, and I'm not at all surprised that here we are
again with the large sunk costs now serving as strong leverage to spend
whatever it takes to get some value from the sunk costs.  Based on the
numbers above, I'm expecting that tonight the EC will be asked to put
somewhere in the ballpark of another $20,000 into the project.  If that
number proves to be the final allocation, then we will have spent $105,000
on a drive for which the original estimates were $65,000.

It does not actually change things at this point, but I am curious how many
of the people who voted for this project at the start would have still
voted for it if the price tag had instead been $105,000 for a state where
the chance of retention for the next cycle is so unrealistic.

We need to deal in reality, not optimistic hopes.  What is the lowest
validity rate that we realistically think we could experience when we turn
in?  I realize this isn't hard science and any number is a guess, but what
is the lowest validity rate that wouldn't be terribly surprising?

It would be a shame to spend $105,000 and then be disqualified for being a
few signatures short because we were slightly too optimistic about the
validity rate.

-Alicia




On Wed, Jan 6, 2016 at 10:34 AM, Wes Benedict <wes.benedict at lp.org> wrote:

> A few more details while we're at it.
> LNC has spent $71,753 on signatures, plus around $5,500 in other expenses
> (like for my travel there and the petition organizer there).
> I may have exact numbers later from the accounting system, but $77,253 is
> a pretty close estimate unless I've forgotten about an expense.
>
> Wes Benedict, Executive Director
> Libertarian National Committee, Inc.
> 1444 Duke St., Alexandria, VA 22314(202) 333-0008 ext. 232, wes.benedict at lp.orgfacebook.com/libertarians @LPNational
> Join the Libertarian Party at: http://lp.org/membership
>
> On 1/6/2016 1:02 PM, Wes Benedict wrote:
>
> Roland,
> We have 31,721 raw signatures.
> We need 24,712 valid signatures. Validity estimates are only estimates,
> but are around 68%. If we indeed have 68% validity, we'd need 36,341
> signatures to hit right on the nose. But validity estimates are only our
> estimates--we can not be sure how county officials will interpret their
> guidelines.
> I'm nervous.
> I think we need between 37,000 and 40,000 raw signatures.
> We don't have enough funds approved to pay for 37,000 raw signatures.
> If you could make it there and collect 1,000 signatures for free, that
> would be a big gift from you to this petition drive.
>
> Below, embedded in this email directly following this sentence, is a graph
> showing the progress.
>
>
>
> Wes Benedict, Executive Director
> Libertarian National Committee, Inc.
> 1444 Duke St., Alexandria, VA 22314(202) 333-0008 ext. 232, wes.benedict at lp.orgfacebook.com/libertarians @LPNational
> Join the Libertarian Party at: http://lp.org/membership
>
> On 1/6/2016 12:40 PM, Roland Riemers wrote:
>
> Wes,
>
> Well last night I had my van packed and ready to travel to Tulsa for a
> week but looking over the weather situation for the next week at the last
> minute decided I did not want to spend a day plugging along on ice slick
> roads at 20 mph to get there.  So, I put it off for later in month.   I did
> talk to Charles Tuttle, and he will probably be starting in Tulsa
> tomorrow.   If,  by chance I do not make it later,  I have paid Tuttle a
> $1,000 advance against Ok signatures,  and will have him credit that amount
> against his signature collection.
>
> So,  where do we stand in numbers in OK now?
>
> Roland Riemers
>
>
>
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>
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