[Lnc-business] ROI - LP News vs Reason Magazine

Roland Riemers riemers at yahoo.com
Wed Feb 17 13:32:47 EST 2016


Hum,  I didn't recall the exact margin of error, as it has been some decades ago that I took the course, but I am glad to see 10% was about right.   Roland Riemers ND


      From: Joshua Katz <planning4liberty at gmail.com>
 To: Scott L. <scott73 at earthlink.net>; lnc-business at hq.lp.org 
 Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2016 12:09 PM
 Subject: Re: [Lnc-business] ROI - LP News vs Reason Magazine
   
Sorry I missed this.  
First, let's see where Mr. Riemers' numbers came from (which are pretty much spot on).  Then let's see how it works out in a typical survey.  
Here, we're asking a yes/no question, so let p be the proportion saying "yes" and q be the proportion saying "no."  Then p+q=1.  Now, the simplified calculation for confidence intervals for proportions requires the following conditions:1.  pn and qn both >=10.  That is, 10 yes and 10 no.  But we don't know the results before we set up the experiment, so how do we know p and q when deciding what n should be?  We guess.  If our results are far off, we have a bad experiment.  If you want to know the smallest n can be to get reasonable results, assume p=q=.5.  Doing so gives you a minimum number of 20.2.  We also need that n be less than 10% of the population.  This is rarely a problem.
1 and 2 together mean that there is no minimum sample percentage, mathematically speaking, and that the precision of your result depends on sample size, regardless of population size.  This is a surprising result - surprising enough that more than a quarter of my students will get it wrong on tests.  However, it shouldn't be as surprising as it is.  Go into Baskin Robbins (or your preferred ice cream store, I don't get a kick back here) and ask for a sample of a flavor without a lot of stuff in it.  (That is, ask for a sample of vanilla, not Pralines n' Cream.)  Taste the sample.  Does that sample give you a good idea of what a cup will taste like?  Maybe, maybe not - but the answer has everything to do with the size of the sample spoon, and nothing to do with the amount of that flavor the store has in stock.
3.  While the above is true mathematically, we do need some (small) percentage as a floor for the purposes of experimental design.  We need our sample to be able to be well-spread over the population.  This will depend on many things.
Now, we go out and gather our data.  Since I don't have a lot symbols, I'll abuse notation and let p also stand for the proportion saying yes in the sample.  We calculate p.  That's our "guess" at the proportion in the population.  How wrong might our guess be?  Well, sqrt(pq/n) gives the margin of error for 95% confidence, so we are 95% sure that the real answer is within that distance of p.  If we used a sample of size 20 and p were .5, then we'd have margin of error=11%.  
So, if the answers are roughly 50-50, and we can spread 20 people evenly among the population, and we want an 11% margin of error, 20 will work.  If you have a different guess, or want a narrower margin of error, we'd need a larger sample.


Joshua A. KatzWestbrook CT Planning Commission (L in R seat)
On Tue, Feb 16, 2016 at 11:16 PM, Scott L. <scott73 at earthlink.net> wrote:


Mr.Ludlow:

I feel your pain. I agree that LP News should not necessarily remain a print vehicle until the end of time.
However, a straw poll on LP.org would not yield what I would call a scientifically valid result.  For example, people who don't go to the web site, but do read the print newsletter, would not be included in that poll.

I understand that doing a statistically valid poll with a polling company could easily cost $7000 or more.

Couldn't we ask an intern or two to call 100 or 200 members and do a survey that way?  I bet Mr. Katz could tell us how many calls we would need to have reasonably valid results.

   Scott Lieberman


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-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin Ludlow 
Sent: Feb 16, 2016 5:16 PM
To: lnc-business at hq.lp.org
Subject: Re: [Lnc-business] ROI - LP News vs Reason Magazine

Wes,

I like you as a person.  Just wanted to say that first.

But professionally speaking here, I'm really embarrassed at this vague attempt of business reasoning that ultimately concludes analysis can't be done, so let's keep pushing forward anyways.

The fact that we spend such a significant chunk of our budget on this and yet you guys apparently can't figure out how to measure the output it, at least to some very basic degree, is incredibly disheartening.  Better still is the conclusion that even though we can't figure it out, we should just continue down the same path, value be damned.  So how can we justify increasing it?  Obviously we can't, but it gives us the warm and fuzzies so let's do it.

Further, you mention how other organizations use a mix of print, digital, social-media, etc.  Am I to conclude from your email that we're going to start splitting up the $9,000 per mailing and mixing it through all of these mediums?  I would be delighted to help the group spend $4,500 on a different medium.  I feel pretty confident what the results will be.

Thinking towards the future, a few people in leadership have questioned why we felt it was so important to form a caucus with the intent of changing how we do business.  THIS is a pretty good example of why.  I don't expect the task to be trivial.  I don't expect the task to be perfect.  No reasonable person would.  But to simply ignore why it needs to be done on the idea that it CAN'T be done speaks volumes to the kind of organization that we're running.  I hope to help change that.

So here's an idea: how about we put a straw poll on the front page of lp.org.  We can ask people if they want to increase the number of issues, keep it the same, decrease the number of issues, or do away with it altogether.  You can even ask how many people throw it in the trash.  And just for fun, feel free to make it a "vote with your dollars" so the LP can get a little something from it.

At least then you'll have you're democratic answer.

-Kevin Ludlow

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On Tue, Feb 16, 2016 at 6:35 PM, Wes Benedict <wes.benedict at lp.org> wrote:

  "Reason magazine--which is known as 'the largest and most influential libertarian publication in the world today'-needs to raise an additional $300,000 per issue to pay its bills. . . That's on top of the money we earn from subscriptions, advertising, and other commercial activities." (Matt Welch - Reason Magazine fundraising letter, 2013, copy attached.)
 
 I've been asked the ROI on LP News. Rather than write about it several times, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with the board all at once, and then forward this email to the people who ask me about it again over the next few months.
 
 LP News is a newsletter. It's #1 goal isn't to raise money directly, although it does raise some money directly. As a newsletter, it informs the readership about our activities. It sometimes inspires, sometimes educates and trains, and sometimes bores people I'm sure. I usually throw Reason Magazine in the trash without reading it, but  I do think it's great for a libertarian publication and I hope they keep it up. 
 
 LP News acts as an advertisement to our subscribers to show what the national, state, and local candidates and affiliates are doing so that when those same subscribers receive fundraising letters, they are more likely to donate in response to fundraising requests.
 
 Some people have very strongly urged us to increase production of LP News to a monthly publication. Others have very strongly urged us to discontinue it altogether. Others have urged electronic only. I personally prefer 4 to 6 issues per year. But if the LNC ever or LNC members ever mandate 12 or 0 and I'm still here, I'll comply.
 
 LP News is posted online at our website LP.org. If you don't know where, that proves a point about the likelihood of people reading the online version. I want it in print too because I want to put in your mailbox right in front of you from time to time. 
 
 Wikipedia definition: "Return on investment (ROI) is the benefit to an investor resulting from an investment of some resource."
 
 In trying to calculate a financial number of ROI for LP News, two Libertarians could argue extensively over what items should be included as investments, and what should be included as returns. 
 
 For those interested in trying to calculate ROI using whatever numbers might be available, you might find some numbers in the LNC meeting archives for that: 
 http://www.lp.org/leadership/lnc-meeting-archives
  
 I'm not interested in trying the calculation myself, because I don't think any reports have enough data to make an accurate calculation, and I think even more detailed reports would probably only provide more precise misinformation. The LNC adopted a membership plan that required publishing major donors' photos in LP News, presumably to recognize them, thank them, encourage them to donate again, and encourage others to follow suit. What is that worth and how do we measure it? The upcoming LP News has a convention registration form in it, which saves us the postage of an extra convention mailing. Should the money coming in from that be counted as a return to LP News, or to the convention? I suppose in the long run, the sum financial ROI of all our non-profit's activities, which are highly co-dependent, are close to zero, as we spend most of what we raise, rather than build up a large pot of money, but one of our economists or accounting gurus might be able to state that more correctly.
 
 Some people have said LP News is a print medium, which is becoming obsolete, and we should end it and go all electronic. Well, I'm for raising funds using multiple channels. The LP is mostly white males, but we should still reach out to women and minorities. Less than half our revenue currently comes from online sources, although it has been growing steadily as a percentage of the total. 
 
 The experts in the political industry continue using a combination of print and online fundraising techniques and newsletters. There's a reason for that. There's a reason the grocery store and department stores still put newsprint flyers in your mailbox, and Chinese restaurants put door hangers on your doorknob. 
 
 While I am in favor of continuing LP News at 4 to 6 print issues per year, at least for a while, I'm more interested in what people think of Liberty Pledge News. Liberty Pledge News is a monthly print publication that gets mailed to our monthly pledgers. If you're not familiar with Liberty Pledge News and would like to sample it for a  few months, please sign up for a monthly pledge of $10 or more here, https://www.lp.org/contribute, or as part of a membership here: https://www.lp.org/membership.
 
 Sample Liberty Pledge News with a monthly contribution today: 
 
 https://www.lp.org/contribute
 https://www.lp.org/membership
  
 and help me decide - keep it, or kill it!
 
 If every LNC member and officers signs up for a $15 per month monthly pledge, M Carling has offered to donate ten times that amount, or $150 per month.
 
 Yours in Liberty Pledge News, 
 -- 
Wes Benedict, Executive Director
Libertarian National Committee, Inc.






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