[Lnc-business] commentary on Scottish STV

Tue Feb 26 20:57:36 EST 2019

I, for one, appreciate the test run and even more appreciate the analysis
by Mattson and Bishop-Henchman. Thank you to everyone involved in this and
I am fine with rerunning results a different way or reciting all together.

Richard Longstreth
Region 1 Representative (AK, AZ, CO, KS, MT, NM, OR, HI, UT, WA, WY)
Libertarian National Committee
richard.longstreth at lp.org
931.538.9300

Sent from my Mobile Device

On Tue, Feb 26, 2019, 18:12 Caryn Ann Harlos via Lnc-business <
lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:

> Elizabeth this was a trial run to learn what we can and what we cannot
> learn.  If we are going to promote alternate voting systems, we should know
> more what we are talking about and tests like these will build that
> knowledge.  I agree this one should be a do-over.
>
> I disagree that constant negativity encourages positive innovation.  Our
> Party culture unfortunately is like that - and when anyone dares to try to
> change things they get heckled down.  This is a culture problem to address.
>
> The same thing happens when we talk about new messaging tactics, new
> campaigning tactics, etc.  Shyer people will be dissuaded from suggesting
> or trying.
>
> I am positive there are better voting systems for us to use as a body, and
> this one has proven to not be it.  But it gained us real experiential
> knowledge.
>
> -Caryn Ann
>
> On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 6:04 PM Elizabeth Van Horn via Lnc-business <
> lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
>
> > Hmm, we have people with 9 & 5 votes, being beaten-out by those with
> > only 4 & 3 votes?
> >
> > Well, I've little to no faith in our results then, and this won't
> > instill confidence in LNC procedures for our members.
> >
> > ---
> > Elizabeth Van Horn
> >
> >
> > On 2019-02-26 18:52, Joe Bishop-Henchman via Lnc-business wrote:
> > > I also just played the results Ms. Harlos sent out and came to the
> > > same fascinating (to me, at least) realization. Ranked choice voting
> > > works great if 800 people are choosing 5 or 9 spots; when it's 12 or
> > > 13 people choosing 9 spots, there are odd results. Especially if each
> > > voter is limited to nine choices, resulting in premature exhaustion of
> > > several ballots.
> > >
> > > Here are the final results with number of distributed votes:
> > > V. Sarwark - 2.00
> > > P. Bilyeu - 2.00
> > > Merced - 2.00
> > > Dasbach - 2.00
> > > Lyons - 1.91
> > > Kelly - 1.00
> > > Shade - 0.66
> > > Recuero - 0.50
> > > Myers - 0.50
> > >
> > > Forget majority - three of our final 9 were elected with less than one
> > > vote after fully distributing everything. As the report indicated, 37
> > > of the 40 rounds broke a tie by random, including on the final round.
> > > With that many random choices, we could probably re-run the results
> > > and get a different final three members each time. (One reading of
> > > Scottish STV is that while it doesn't require a majority it still
> > > requires hitting the threshold of 2, and only four people did so.)
> > >
> > > I compared it to approval voting (the usual method we have used for
> > > filling vacancies), assuming (probably incorrectly) that everyone
> > > would have voted for the same people:
> > >
> > > Valerie Sarwark       12
> > > Paul Bilyeu   11
> > > Alex Merced   11
> > > Jeff Lyons    10
> > > Steve Dasbach 9
> > > Jennifer Moore        9 (not elected)
> > > Omar Recuero  7
> > > Fernando Davis        5 (not elected)
> > > Johnny Walker 5 (not elected)
> > >
> > > Tyler Bargenquast     4
> > > Brandon Bobbit        4
> > > Bryan Bombardier      4
> > > PJ Capelli    4
> > > Jennifer Flower       4
> > > Cecil Ince    4
> > > Kenny Kelly   4 (elected)
> > > Mayna Myers   4 (elected)
> > > Kevin Warmhold        4
> > > Marc Lazerow  3
> > > Kevin Moore   3
> > > James Olivi   3
> > > Fransisco Olvera      3
> > > Sean Parr     3
> > > Ashely Shade  3 (elected)
> > > Sharon Smith  3
> > >
> > > The starkest differences between the two voting methods are that J.
> > > Moore appeared on 9 of our 13 ballots, on all but one in the top six,
> > > but was not elected, while Shade (appearing on just three ballots as
> > > 4th, 5th, and 7th choices), was elected by random coin flip ahead of
> > > over a dozen other people who appeared on more ballots.
> > >
> > > I would suggest if we do this again in the future:
> > > * No limit on # of candidates to rank, to prevent premature ballot
> > > exhaustion.
> > > * In an extended ballot where we're all sharing results, those voting
> > > last have an incredible information advantage for tactical voting.
> > > Results should be secret until voting has closed.
> > > * If not requiring a majority, establishing a floor for # of votes to
> > > be elected. In the end, what we did was for all purposes no different
> > > from randomly picking 9 LNC members to each pick one person for the
> > > committee, except worse since three of those elected got less than 1
> > > vote.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > JBH
> > >
> > > ------------
> > > Joe Bishop-Henchman
> > > LNC Member (At-Large)
> > > joe.bishop-henchman at lp.org
> > > www.facebook.com/groups/189510455174837
> > >
> > > On 2019-02-22 04:32, Alicia Mattson via Lnc-business wrote:
> > >> I have a number of comments I wish to make about the Scottish STV
> > >> voting
> > >> system, but I don't have time to write it all up this evening.  I will
> > >> start with these comments and add more details to these thoughts
> > >> later.
> > >>
> > >> It is one thing to read the theory and rules for a voting system on a
> > >> webpage, but it's another thing to print out the paper ballots and
> > >> enact
> > >> the process yourself to see the effects of each step.  Last night, I
> > >> took
> > >> the 7 ballots cast up to that point, printed them out on paper, and
> > >> put
> > >> them in piles on the floor to manually experience how it works.
> > >>
> > >> It didn't take long before my eyes got wide.  Then a little later my
> > >> jaw
> > >> dropped as I realized more and more implications of the process.  When
> > >> I
> > >> was done, I paced around the living room in a bit of a rant as I put
> > >> my
> > >> realizations into words.
> > >>
> > >> Clearly, this voting system was envisioned for situations in which the
> > >> number of ballots being cast VASTLY outnumbers (by orders of
> > >> magnitude)
> > >> both the number of seats being filled and also the number of
> > >> candidates.
> > >>
> > >> In our case, however, if everyone had voted it would have been 17
> > >> ballots
> > >> cast to choose from more than 40 candidates to fill 9 seats.  I only
> > >> saw
> > >> ballots from 12 people on one election and 13 on the other, making the
> > >> ratios even worse.  This seems to be in the range of
> > >> worst-case-scenario
> > >> for this voting system.
> > >>
> > >> With these ratios, the process devolves into essentially a casino game
> > >> of
> > >> chance necessitating random candidate eliminations early in the
> > >> process.
> > >> After the first round of vote distributions, we might as well just
> > >> tell the
> > >> candidates to play Russian roulette...or for fewer dead bodies we
> > >> could
> > >> just draw names out of a hat.
> > >>
> > >> If I correctly understand the process, then it's mathematically
> > >> impossible
> > >> for the number of ballots cast in these two elections to elect more
> > >> than 6
> > >> candidates to each committee.  Looking at the vote distribution, we'll
> > >> elect at least 3 but no more than 6, depending on the outcome of some
> > >> random selections, so we're in for re-balloting anyway.
> > >>
> > >> More specifics later...
> > >>
> > >> -Alicia
> >
>
>
> --
>
> *  In Liberty,*
>
> *Libertarian Party and Libertarian National Committee Secretary *-
> Caryn.Ann.
> Harlos at LP.org <Caryn.Ann.Harlos at LP.org> or Secretary at LP.org.
> *Chair, LP Historical Preservation Committee* - LPedia at LP.org
> Call me at 561.523.2250 and follow my public figure page at
> facebook.com/pinkflameofliberty/
>
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