[Lnc-business] commentary on Scottish STV
Caryn Ann Harlos
caryn.ann.harlos at lp.org
Tue Feb 26 22:45:01 EST 2019
Yes I saw that and am alerting OpaVote to that. I’ll let you know the
response. Viewing ballots is a hot mess.
On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 8:32 PM Alicia Mattson via Lnc-business <
lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
> The OpaVote feature to allow us to "View Ballots" clearly did not
> anticipate an election with so many candidates. They don't fit the alloted
> print space, so the ballots graphically overlap each other and become very
> difficult to read.
>
> -Alicia
>
>
> On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 5:57 PM Richard Longstreth via Lnc-business <
> lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
>
> > I, for one, appreciate the test run and even more appreciate the analysis
> > by Mattson and Bishop-Henchman. Thank you to everyone involved in this
> and
> > I am fine with rerunning results a different way or reciting all
> together.
> >
> > Richard Longstreth
> > Region 1 Representative (AK, AZ, CO, KS, MT, NM, OR, HI, UT, WA, WY)
> > Libertarian National Committee
> > richard.longstreth at lp.org
> > 931.538.9300
> >
> > Sent from my Mobile Device
> >
> > On Tue, Feb 26, 2019, 18:12 Caryn Ann Harlos via Lnc-business <
> > lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
> >
> > > Elizabeth this was a trial run to learn what we can and what we cannot
> > > learn. If we are going to promote alternate voting systems, we should
> > know
> > > more what we are talking about and tests like these will build that
> > > knowledge. I agree this one should be a do-over.
> > >
> > > I disagree that constant negativity encourages positive innovation.
> Our
> > > Party culture unfortunately is like that - and when anyone dares to try
> > to
> > > change things they get heckled down. This is a culture problem to
> > address.
> > >
> > > The same thing happens when we talk about new messaging tactics, new
> > > campaigning tactics, etc. Shyer people will be dissuaded from
> suggesting
> > > or trying.
> > >
> > > I am positive there are better voting systems for us to use as a body,
> > and
> > > this one has proven to not be it. But it gained us real experiential
> > > knowledge.
> > >
> > > -Caryn Ann
> > >
> > > On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 6:04 PM Elizabeth Van Horn via Lnc-business <
> > > lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hmm, we have people with 9 & 5 votes, being beaten-out by those with
> > > > only 4 & 3 votes?
> > > >
> > > > Well, I've little to no faith in our results then, and this won't
> > > > instill confidence in LNC procedures for our members.
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Elizabeth Van Horn
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On 2019-02-26 18:52, Joe Bishop-Henchman via Lnc-business wrote:
> > > > > I also just played the results Ms. Harlos sent out and came to the
> > > > > same fascinating (to me, at least) realization. Ranked choice
> voting
> > > > > works great if 800 people are choosing 5 or 9 spots; when it's 12
> or
> > > > > 13 people choosing 9 spots, there are odd results. Especially if
> each
> > > > > voter is limited to nine choices, resulting in premature exhaustion
> > of
> > > > > several ballots.
> > > > >
> > > > > Here are the final results with number of distributed votes:
> > > > > V. Sarwark - 2.00
> > > > > P. Bilyeu - 2.00
> > > > > Merced - 2.00
> > > > > Dasbach - 2.00
> > > > > Lyons - 1.91
> > > > > Kelly - 1.00
> > > > > Shade - 0.66
> > > > > Recuero - 0.50
> > > > > Myers - 0.50
> > > > >
> > > > > Forget majority - three of our final 9 were elected with less than
> > one
> > > > > vote after fully distributing everything. As the report indicated,
> 37
> > > > > of the 40 rounds broke a tie by random, including on the final
> round.
> > > > > With that many random choices, we could probably re-run the results
> > > > > and get a different final three members each time. (One reading of
> > > > > Scottish STV is that while it doesn't require a majority it still
> > > > > requires hitting the threshold of 2, and only four people did so.)
> > > > >
> > > > > I compared it to approval voting (the usual method we have used for
> > > > > filling vacancies), assuming (probably incorrectly) that everyone
> > > > > would have voted for the same people:
> > > > >
> > > > > Valerie Sarwark 12
> > > > > Paul Bilyeu 11
> > > > > Alex Merced 11
> > > > > Jeff Lyons 10
> > > > > Steve Dasbach 9
> > > > > Jennifer Moore 9 (not elected)
> > > > > Omar Recuero 7
> > > > > Fernando Davis 5 (not elected)
> > > > > Johnny Walker 5 (not elected)
> > > > >
> > > > > Tyler Bargenquast 4
> > > > > Brandon Bobbit 4
> > > > > Bryan Bombardier 4
> > > > > PJ Capelli 4
> > > > > Jennifer Flower 4
> > > > > Cecil Ince 4
> > > > > Kenny Kelly 4 (elected)
> > > > > Mayna Myers 4 (elected)
> > > > > Kevin Warmhold 4
> > > > > Marc Lazerow 3
> > > > > Kevin Moore 3
> > > > > James Olivi 3
> > > > > Fransisco Olvera 3
> > > > > Sean Parr 3
> > > > > Ashely Shade 3 (elected)
> > > > > Sharon Smith 3
> > > > >
> > > > > The starkest differences between the two voting methods are that J.
> > > > > Moore appeared on 9 of our 13 ballots, on all but one in the top
> six,
> > > > > but was not elected, while Shade (appearing on just three ballots
> as
> > > > > 4th, 5th, and 7th choices), was elected by random coin flip ahead
> of
> > > > > over a dozen other people who appeared on more ballots.
> > > > >
> > > > > I would suggest if we do this again in the future:
> > > > > * No limit on # of candidates to rank, to prevent premature ballot
> > > > > exhaustion.
> > > > > * In an extended ballot where we're all sharing results, those
> voting
> > > > > last have an incredible information advantage for tactical voting.
> > > > > Results should be secret until voting has closed.
> > > > > * If not requiring a majority, establishing a floor for # of votes
> to
> > > > > be elected. In the end, what we did was for all purposes no
> different
> > > > > from randomly picking 9 LNC members to each pick one person for the
> > > > > committee, except worse since three of those elected got less than
> 1
> > > > > vote.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > JBH
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------
> > > > > Joe Bishop-Henchman
> > > > > LNC Member (At-Large)
> > > > > joe.bishop-henchman at lp.org
> > > > > www.facebook.com/groups/189510455174837
> > > > >
> > > > > On 2019-02-22 04:32, Alicia Mattson via Lnc-business wrote:
> > > > >> I have a number of comments I wish to make about the Scottish STV
> > > > >> voting
> > > > >> system, but I don't have time to write it all up this evening. I
> > will
> > > > >> start with these comments and add more details to these thoughts
> > > > >> later.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> It is one thing to read the theory and rules for a voting system
> on
> > a
> > > > >> webpage, but it's another thing to print out the paper ballots and
> > > > >> enact
> > > > >> the process yourself to see the effects of each step. Last
> night, I
> > > > >> took
> > > > >> the 7 ballots cast up to that point, printed them out on paper,
> and
> > > > >> put
> > > > >> them in piles on the floor to manually experience how it works.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> It didn't take long before my eyes got wide. Then a little later
> my
> > > > >> jaw
> > > > >> dropped as I realized more and more implications of the process.
> > When
> > > > >> I
> > > > >> was done, I paced around the living room in a bit of a rant as I
> put
> > > > >> my
> > > > >> realizations into words.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Clearly, this voting system was envisioned for situations in which
> > the
> > > > >> number of ballots being cast VASTLY outnumbers (by orders of
> > > > >> magnitude)
> > > > >> both the number of seats being filled and also the number of
> > > > >> candidates.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> In our case, however, if everyone had voted it would have been 17
> > > > >> ballots
> > > > >> cast to choose from more than 40 candidates to fill 9 seats. I
> only
> > > > >> saw
> > > > >> ballots from 12 people on one election and 13 on the other, making
> > the
> > > > >> ratios even worse. This seems to be in the range of
> > > > >> worst-case-scenario
> > > > >> for this voting system.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> With these ratios, the process devolves into essentially a casino
> > game
> > > > >> of
> > > > >> chance necessitating random candidate eliminations early in the
> > > > >> process.
> > > > >> After the first round of vote distributions, we might as well just
> > > > >> tell the
> > > > >> candidates to play Russian roulette...or for fewer dead bodies we
> > > > >> could
> > > > >> just draw names out of a hat.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> If I correctly understand the process, then it's mathematically
> > > > >> impossible
> > > > >> for the number of ballots cast in these two elections to elect
> more
> > > > >> than 6
> > > > >> candidates to each committee. Looking at the vote distribution,
> > we'll
> > > > >> elect at least 3 but no more than 6, depending on the outcome of
> > some
> > > > >> random selections, so we're in for re-balloting anyway.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> More specifics later...
> > > > >>
> > > > >> -Alicia
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > >
> > > * In Liberty,*
> > >
> > > *Libertarian Party and Libertarian National Committee Secretary *-
> > > Caryn.Ann.
> > > Harlos at LP.org <Caryn.Ann.Harlos at LP.org> or Secretary at LP.org.
> > > *Chair, LP Historical Preservation Committee* - LPedia at LP.org
> > > Call me at 561.523.2250 and follow my public figure page at
> > > facebook.com/pinkflameofliberty/
> > >
> > >
> =========================================================================
> > > Peaceful Commerce With All Nations * Non-interventionism * Re-Legalize
> > All
> > > Drugs * End Government Intrusion In The Bedroom * Repeal All Gun Laws *
> > > Abolish All Taxation * Sound, Free-market Money * Abolish The Fed * End
> > > Corporate & Individual Welfare * Abolish The IRS and Repeal the Income
> > Tax
> > > * Privatize Transportation Infrastructure * Free-market Emergency
> > Services
> > > * Open Migration * Transfer Government Schools To The Private Sector *
> > > Eliminate Regulation *
> > >
> > > *VOTE LIBERTARIAN * 800-ELECT-US or http://www.LP.org <
> > http://www.lp.org/
> > > >*
> > >
> =========================================================================
> > >
> >
>
--
* In Liberty,*
*Libertarian Party and Libertarian National Committee Secretary *- Caryn.Ann.
Harlos at LP.org <Caryn.Ann.Harlos at LP.org> or Secretary at LP.org.
*Chair, LP Historical Preservation Committee* - LPedia at LP.org
Call me at 561.523.2250 and follow my public figure page at
facebook.com/pinkflameofliberty/
=========================================================================
Peaceful Commerce With All Nations * Non-interventionism * Re-Legalize All
Drugs * End Government Intrusion In The Bedroom * Repeal All Gun Laws *
Abolish All Taxation * Sound, Free-market Money * Abolish The Fed * End
Corporate & Individual Welfare * Abolish The IRS and Repeal the Income Tax
* Privatize Transportation Infrastructure * Free-market Emergency Services
* Open Migration * Transfer Government Schools To The Private Sector *
Eliminate Regulation *
*VOTE LIBERTARIAN * 800-ELECT-US or http://www.LP.org <http://www.lp.org/>*
=========================================================================
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