[Lnc-business] commentary on Scottish STV
Caryn Ann Harlos
caryn.ann.harlos at lp.org
Wed Feb 27 01:26:31 EST 2019
I totally agree. I’m compiling the graphical results from other methods to
compile.
On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 11:16 PM Tim Hagan via Lnc-business <
lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
> This is a good learning experiment. I am wondering if one of the
> problems is that we are a relatively small groups electing a relatively
> large group. Scottish STV uses the Integer function to determine the
> threshold. It probably works much better with thousands of voters
> electing four or five positions. Rounding up to a whole number for the
> threshold instead of using a fractional threshold means that at the last
> round candidates below the threshold still get elected. In our vote,
> four candidates reached the threshold of at least 2 votes and the rest
> of the winners were were still below the threshold at the last round. We
> also had candidates tied and the program selecting one at random to
> eliminate. Using a method with a fractional threshold gets rid of the
> random tie-breakers and has all of the winning candidates reaching the
> threshold.
>
> OpaVote allows us to recount with different methods, so I tried it with
> the Membership Support Committee vote.
>
> Scottish STV: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny Kelly, Jeff Lyons, Alex
> Merced, Mayna Myers, Omar Recuero, Valerie Sarwark, and Ashely Shade
>
> Meek STV with Whole threshold: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny Kelly,
> Jeff Lyons, Alex Merced, Jennifer Moore, Mayna Myers, Sean Parr, and
> Valerie Sarwark
>
> Meek STV with Fractional threshold: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny
> Kelly, Jeff Lyons, Alex Merced, Jennifer Moore, Mayna Myers, Omar
> Recuero, and Valerie Sarwark
>
> ERS97 STV: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny Kelly, Jeff Lyons, Alex
> Merced, Jennifer Moore, Mayna Myers, Omar Recuero, and Valerie Sarwark
>
> Warren STV with Fractional threshold: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny
> Kelly, Jeff Lyons, Alex Merced, Jennifer Moore, Mayna Myers, Omar
> Recuero, and Valerie Sarwark
>
> N. Ireland STV: Paul Bilyeu, Steve Dasbach, Kenny Kelly, Jeff Lyons,
> Alex Merced, Mayna Myers, Omar Recuero, Valerie Sarwark, and Ashely
> Shade
>
> Bilyeu, Dasbach, Merced, and Sarwark got enough first-place votes to win
> in the first round with all methods. Lyons, Kelly, and Myers are
> favorites who win with the STV methods. The differences come down
> Jennifer Moore, Sean Parr, Omar Recuero, and Ashely Shade. I haven't
> looked at the ballots to see the exact reason why the results change.
>
> ---
> Tim Hagan
> Treasurer, Libertarian National Committee
>
> On 2019-02-26 17:12, Caryn Ann Harlos via Lnc-business wrote:
> > Elizabeth this was a trial run to learn what we can and what we cannot
> > learn. If we are going to promote alternate voting systems, we should
> > know
> > more what we are talking about and tests like these will build that
> > knowledge. I agree this one should be a do-over.
> >
> > I disagree that constant negativity encourages positive innovation.
> > Our
> > Party culture unfortunately is like that - and when anyone dares to try
> > to
> > change things they get heckled down. This is a culture problem to
> > address.
> >
> > The same thing happens when we talk about new messaging tactics, new
> > campaigning tactics, etc. Shyer people will be dissuaded from
> > suggesting
> > or trying.
> >
> > I am positive there are better voting systems for us to use as a body,
> > and
> > this one has proven to not be it. But it gained us real experiential
> > knowledge.
> >
> > -Caryn Ann
> >
> > On Tue, Feb 26, 2019 at 6:04 PM Elizabeth Van Horn via Lnc-business <
> > lnc-business at hq.lp.org> wrote:
> >
> >> Hmm, we have people with 9 & 5 votes, being beaten-out by those with
> >> only 4 & 3 votes?
> >>
> >> Well, I've little to no faith in our results then, and this won't
> >> instill confidence in LNC procedures for our members.
> >>
> >> ---
> >> Elizabeth Van Horn
> >>
> >>
> >> On 2019-02-26 18:52, Joe Bishop-Henchman via Lnc-business wrote:
> >> > I also just played the results Ms. Harlos sent out and came to the
> >> > same fascinating (to me, at least) realization. Ranked choice voting
> >> > works great if 800 people are choosing 5 or 9 spots; when it's 12 or
> >> > 13 people choosing 9 spots, there are odd results. Especially if each
> >> > voter is limited to nine choices, resulting in premature exhaustion of
> >> > several ballots.
> >> >
> >> > Here are the final results with number of distributed votes:
> >> > V. Sarwark - 2.00
> >> > P. Bilyeu - 2.00
> >> > Merced - 2.00
> >> > Dasbach - 2.00
> >> > Lyons - 1.91
> >> > Kelly - 1.00
> >> > Shade - 0.66
> >> > Recuero - 0.50
> >> > Myers - 0.50
> >> >
> >> > Forget majority - three of our final 9 were elected with less than one
> >> > vote after fully distributing everything. As the report indicated, 37
> >> > of the 40 rounds broke a tie by random, including on the final round.
> >> > With that many random choices, we could probably re-run the results
> >> > and get a different final three members each time. (One reading of
> >> > Scottish STV is that while it doesn't require a majority it still
> >> > requires hitting the threshold of 2, and only four people did so.)
> >> >
> >> > I compared it to approval voting (the usual method we have used for
> >> > filling vacancies), assuming (probably incorrectly) that everyone
> >> > would have voted for the same people:
> >> >
> >> > Valerie Sarwark 12
> >> > Paul Bilyeu 11
> >> > Alex Merced 11
> >> > Jeff Lyons 10
> >> > Steve Dasbach 9
> >> > Jennifer Moore 9 (not elected)
> >> > Omar Recuero 7
> >> > Fernando Davis 5 (not elected)
> >> > Johnny Walker 5 (not elected)
> >> >
> >> > Tyler Bargenquast 4
> >> > Brandon Bobbit 4
> >> > Bryan Bombardier 4
> >> > PJ Capelli 4
> >> > Jennifer Flower 4
> >> > Cecil Ince 4
> >> > Kenny Kelly 4 (elected)
> >> > Mayna Myers 4 (elected)
> >> > Kevin Warmhold 4
> >> > Marc Lazerow 3
> >> > Kevin Moore 3
> >> > James Olivi 3
> >> > Fransisco Olvera 3
> >> > Sean Parr 3
> >> > Ashely Shade 3 (elected)
> >> > Sharon Smith 3
> >> >
> >> > The starkest differences between the two voting methods are that J.
> >> > Moore appeared on 9 of our 13 ballots, on all but one in the top six,
> >> > but was not elected, while Shade (appearing on just three ballots as
> >> > 4th, 5th, and 7th choices), was elected by random coin flip ahead of
> >> > over a dozen other people who appeared on more ballots.
> >> >
> >> > I would suggest if we do this again in the future:
> >> > * No limit on # of candidates to rank, to prevent premature ballot
> >> > exhaustion.
> >> > * In an extended ballot where we're all sharing results, those voting
> >> > last have an incredible information advantage for tactical voting.
> >> > Results should be secret until voting has closed.
> >> > * If not requiring a majority, establishing a floor for # of votes to
> >> > be elected. In the end, what we did was for all purposes no different
> >> > from randomly picking 9 LNC members to each pick one person for the
> >> > committee, except worse since three of those elected got less than 1
> >> > vote.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > JBH
> >> >
> >> > ------------
> >> > Joe Bishop-Henchman
> >> > LNC Member (At-Large)
> >> > joe.bishop-henchman at lp.org
> >> > www.facebook.com/groups/189510455174837
> >> >
> >> > On 2019-02-22 04:32, Alicia Mattson via Lnc-business wrote:
> >> >> I have a number of comments I wish to make about the Scottish STV
> >> >> voting
> >> >> system, but I don't have time to write it all up this evening. I
> will
> >> >> start with these comments and add more details to these thoughts
> >> >> later.
> >> >>
> >> >> It is one thing to read the theory and rules for a voting system on a
> >> >> webpage, but it's another thing to print out the paper ballots and
> >> >> enact
> >> >> the process yourself to see the effects of each step. Last night, I
> >> >> took
> >> >> the 7 ballots cast up to that point, printed them out on paper, and
> >> >> put
> >> >> them in piles on the floor to manually experience how it works.
> >> >>
> >> >> It didn't take long before my eyes got wide. Then a little later my
> >> >> jaw
> >> >> dropped as I realized more and more implications of the process.
> When
> >> >> I
> >> >> was done, I paced around the living room in a bit of a rant as I put
> >> >> my
> >> >> realizations into words.
> >> >>
> >> >> Clearly, this voting system was envisioned for situations in which
> the
> >> >> number of ballots being cast VASTLY outnumbers (by orders of
> >> >> magnitude)
> >> >> both the number of seats being filled and also the number of
> >> >> candidates.
> >> >>
> >> >> In our case, however, if everyone had voted it would have been 17
> >> >> ballots
> >> >> cast to choose from more than 40 candidates to fill 9 seats. I only
> >> >> saw
> >> >> ballots from 12 people on one election and 13 on the other, making
> the
> >> >> ratios even worse. This seems to be in the range of
> >> >> worst-case-scenario
> >> >> for this voting system.
> >> >>
> >> >> With these ratios, the process devolves into essentially a casino
> game
> >> >> of
> >> >> chance necessitating random candidate eliminations early in the
> >> >> process.
> >> >> After the first round of vote distributions, we might as well just
> >> >> tell the
> >> >> candidates to play Russian roulette...or for fewer dead bodies we
> >> >> could
> >> >> just draw names out of a hat.
> >> >>
> >> >> If I correctly understand the process, then it's mathematically
> >> >> impossible
> >> >> for the number of ballots cast in these two elections to elect more
> >> >> than 6
> >> >> candidates to each committee. Looking at the vote distribution,
> we'll
> >> >> elect at least 3 but no more than 6, depending on the outcome of some
> >> >> random selections, so we're in for re-balloting anyway.
> >> >>
> >> >> More specifics later...
> >> >>
> >> >> -Alicia
> >>
> >
> >
> > --
> >
> > * In Liberty,*
> >
> > *Libertarian Party and Libertarian National Committee Secretary *-
> > Caryn.Ann.
> > Harlos at LP.org <Caryn.Ann.Harlos at LP.org> or Secretary at LP.org.
> > *Chair, LP Historical Preservation Committee* - LPedia at LP.org
> > Call me at 561.523.2250 and follow my public figure page at
> > facebook.com/pinkflameofliberty/
> >
> > =========================================================================
> > Peaceful Commerce With All Nations * Non-interventionism * Re-Legalize
> > All
> > Drugs * End Government Intrusion In The Bedroom * Repeal All Gun Laws *
> > Abolish All Taxation * Sound, Free-market Money * Abolish The Fed * End
> > Corporate & Individual Welfare * Abolish The IRS and Repeal the Income
> > Tax
> > * Privatize Transportation Infrastructure * Free-market Emergency
> > Services
> > * Open Migration * Transfer Government Schools To The Private Sector *
> > Eliminate Regulation *
> >
> > *VOTE LIBERTARIAN * 800-ELECT-US or http://www.LP.org
> > <http://www.lp.org/>*
> > =========================================================================
>
--
* In Liberty,*
*Libertarian Party and Libertarian National Committee Secretary *- Caryn.Ann.
Harlos at LP.org <Caryn.Ann.Harlos at LP.org> or Secretary at LP.org.
*Chair, LP Historical Preservation Committee* - LPedia at LP.org
Call me at 561.523.2250 and follow my public figure page at
facebook.com/pinkflameofliberty/
=========================================================================
Peaceful Commerce With All Nations * Non-interventionism * Re-Legalize All
Drugs * End Government Intrusion In The Bedroom * Repeal All Gun Laws *
Abolish All Taxation * Sound, Free-market Money * Abolish The Fed * End
Corporate & Individual Welfare * Abolish The IRS and Repeal the Income Tax
* Privatize Transportation Infrastructure * Free-market Emergency Services
* Open Migration * Transfer Government Schools To The Private Sector *
Eliminate Regulation *
*VOTE LIBERTARIAN * 800-ELECT-US or http://www.LP.org <http://www.lp.org/>*
=========================================================================
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