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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Scott L.
[mailto:<st1:PersonName w:st="on">scott73@earthlink.net</st1:PersonName>] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, October 20, 2014
9:59 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> '<st1:PersonName w:st="on">lnc-business@lp.org</st1:PersonName>'<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> How many elections are
"winnable" this November for the LP?</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>I just went thru the <u>A to D section</u> of our
nationwide list of candidates for 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Total candidates
113<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Total number of winnable races
18<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Total # of ballot access retention races
14 <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>Percentage of <b><span style='font-weight:bold'>non-ballot-access-retention
candidates </span></b> that have a chance of winning
16%.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;font-weight:bold'>Nevertheless – I will go out on a
limb and predict that the LP will have 19 victories on Election Day next
month. That includes incumbents running for re-election.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'> Scott Lieberman<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'>HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Scott L.
[mailto:<st1:PersonName w:st="on">scott73@earthlink.net</st1:PersonName>] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Sunday, November 23, 2014
7:35 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> '<st1:PersonName w:st="on">lnc-business@lp.org</st1:PersonName>'<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> How many Libertarians got
elected in Nov 2014?</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;font-weight:bold'>According to my count, 17 Libertarians
were elected or re-elected to public office in the November 2014 election.<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;font-weight:bold'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>Of those, 7 were partisan offices, and 10 were
non-partisan offices.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>This gives us an approximate winning percentage of
2%. It is difficult to recruit volunteers into a political party
that has a<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>winning percentage that low.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'> Scott Lieberman<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>I quote from the two e-mails above to show that my
prediction of 19 victories on Election Day was very close<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>to the actual number, which has not yet been released by
LPHQ staff.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>On the one hand, I am happy that my political forecasting
skills are that good.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>On the other hand, I am very sad that the LNC and many
state affiliates still treat the “elect Libertarians to public office”
part of our National Bylaws as an afterthought, rather than as a Mission
Statement.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'> Scott Lieberman<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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