<div dir="ltr"><div><div>Since the 68% validity is an estimate, I'm assuming it's an optimistic estimate. The finances for this drive have all turned out to be very optimistic estimates. On the previous EC call, I expressed my hunch that more money would be required, and I'm not at all surprised that here we are again with the large sunk costs now serving as strong leverage to spend whatever it takes to get some value from the sunk costs. Based on the numbers above, I'm expecting that tonight the EC will be asked to put somewhere in the ballpark of another $20,000 into the project. If that number proves to be the final allocation, then we will have spent $105,000 on a drive for which the original estimates were $65,000.<br><br></div><div>It does not actually change things at this point, but I am curious how many of the people who voted for this project at the start would have still voted for it if the price tag had instead been $105,000 for a state where the chance of retention for the next cycle is so unrealistic.<br></div><div><br></div>We need to deal in reality, not optimistic hopes. What is the lowest validity rate that we realistically think we could experience when we turn in? I realize this isn't hard science and any number is a guess, but what is the lowest validity rate that wouldn't be terribly surprising?<br><br></div><div>It would be a shame to spend $105,000 and then be disqualified for being a few signatures short because we were slightly too optimistic about the validity rate.<br></div><div><br></div>-Alicia<br><br><div><br><div><br></div></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Jan 6, 2016 at 10:34 AM, Wes Benedict <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:wes.benedict@lp.org" target="_blank">wes.benedict@lp.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000">
A few more details while we're at it.<br>
LNC has spent $71,753 on signatures, plus around $5,500 in other
expenses (like for my travel there and the petition organizer
there).<br>
I may have exact numbers later from the accounting system, but
$77,253 is a pretty close estimate unless I've forgotten about an
expense.<span class=""><br>
<br>
<pre cols="72">Wes Benedict, Executive Director
Libertarian National Committee, Inc.
1444 Duke St., Alexandria, VA 22314
<a href="tel:%28202%29%20333-0008%20ext.%20232" value="+12023330008" target="_blank">(202) 333-0008 ext. 232</a>, <a href="mailto:wes.benedict@lp.org" target="_blank">wes.benedict@lp.org</a>
<a href="http://facebook.com/libertarians" target="_blank">facebook.com/libertarians</a> @LPNational
Join the Libertarian Party at: <a href="http://lp.org/membership" target="_blank">http://lp.org/membership</a></pre>
</span><span class=""><div>On 1/6/2016 1:02 PM, Wes Benedict
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
Roland, <br>
We have 31,721 raw signatures. <br>
We need 24,712 valid signatures. Validity estimates are only
estimates, but are around 68%. If we indeed have 68% validity,
we'd need 36,341 signatures to hit right on the nose. But validity
estimates are only our estimates--we can not be sure how county
officials will interpret their guidelines.<br>
I'm nervous.<br>
I think we need between 37,000 and 40,000 raw signatures.<br>
We don't have enough funds approved to pay for 37,000 raw
signatures.<br>
If you could make it there and collect 1,000 signatures for free,
that would be a big gift from you to this petition drive.<br>
<br>
Below, embedded in this email directly following this sentence, is
a graph showing the progress.<br>
<br>
<img src="cid:part1.01070801.07040701@lp.org" alt=""><br>
<br>
<pre cols="72">Wes Benedict, Executive Director
Libertarian National Committee, Inc.
1444 Duke St., Alexandria, VA 22314
<a href="tel:%28202%29%20333-0008%20ext.%20232" value="+12023330008" target="_blank">(202) 333-0008 ext. 232</a>, <a href="mailto:wes.benedict@lp.org" target="_blank">wes.benedict@lp.org</a>
<a href="http://facebook.com/libertarians" target="_blank">facebook.com/libertarians</a> @LPNational
Join the Libertarian Party at: <a href="http://lp.org/membership" target="_blank">http://lp.org/membership</a></pre>
<div>On 1/6/2016 12:40 PM, Roland Riemers
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:HelveticaNeue,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
<div><span></span></div>
<div>Wes,</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Well last night I
had my van packed and ready to travel to Tulsa for a week
but looking over the weather situation for the next week at
the last minute decided I did not want to spend a day
plugging along on ice slick roads at 20 mph to get there.
So, I put it off for later in month. I did talk to Charles
Tuttle, and he will probably be starting in Tulsa
tomorrow. If, by chance I do not make it later, I have
paid Tuttle a $1,000 advance against Ok signatures, and
will have him credit that amount against his signature
collection.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>So, where do we
stand in numbers in OK now?</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div dir="ltr">Roland
Riemers<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<br>
</span></div>
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