[Lnc-business] How many elections are "winnable" this November for the LP?

[Scott L.]

From: Scott L. [mailto:scott73 at earthlink.net] 
Sent: Monday, October 20, 2014 9:59 AM
To: 'lnc-business at lp.org'
Subject: How many elections are "winnable" this November for the LP?

 

 

I just went thru the  A to D section of our nationwide list of candidates
for 2014.

 

 

Total candidates                         113

 

Total number of winnable races            18

 

Total # of ballot access retention races  14  

 

 

Percentage of  non-ballot-access-retention candidates  that have a chance of
winning    16%.

 

 

Nevertheless - I will go out on a limb and predict that the LP will have 19
victories on Election Day next month.  That includes incumbents running for
re-election.

 

 

  Scott Lieberman

 

 

 

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh

 

 

From: Scott L. [mailto:scott73 at earthlink.net] 
Sent: Sunday, November 23, 2014 7:35 AM
To: 'lnc-business at lp.org'
Subject: How many Libertarians got elected in Nov 2014?

 

 

According to my count, 17 Libertarians were elected or re-elected to public
office in the November 2014 election.

 

Of those, 7 were partisan offices, and 10 were non-partisan offices.

 

This gives us an approximate winning percentage of 2%.   It is difficult to
recruit volunteers into a political party that has a

winning percentage that low.

 

    Scott Lieberman

 

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
GGGG

 

 

I quote from the two e-mails above to show that my prediction of 19
victories on Election Day was very close

to the actual number, which has not yet been released by LPHQ staff.

 

On the one hand, I am happy that my political forecasting skills are that
good.

 

On the other hand, I am very sad that the LNC and many state affiliates
still treat the "elect Libertarians to public office" part of our National
Bylaws as an afterthought, rather than as a Mission Statement.

 

   Scott Lieberman

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://hq.lp.org/pipermail/lnc-business/attachments/20141128/a5a9a6d0/attachment-0002.html>